Quick Tips Series (1/30): Overthinking

Your journey to solving your problems with brain science

This is our Quick Tips Series: the most basic, but still effective tools for your everyday problems. Use them as your first step on your path to overcoming your challenges with our M.I.N.D. Method!

Overthinking isn’t a character flaw — it’s a cognitive response rooted in intolerance of uncertainty (IU), a psychological construct that describes how strongly someone reacts to ambiguous or unpredictable situations.

Research by Dugas et al. (1998) shows that individuals high in IU interpret uncertainty as distress, which leads to excessive worry and mental rehearsal of worst-case outcomes.

GAD: a preliminary test of a conceptual model

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The model's main features are intolerance of uncertainty, beliefs about worry, poor problem orientation and cognitive avoidance.

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Neurobiologically, this state is maintained by persistent activation in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), the brain region responsible for evaluating risks. Without a clear outcome, the OFC keeps scanning for resolution, which never arrives, without action¹.

So, instead of acting, your brain loops through imagined risks to gain the illusion of control².

This creates a cognitive loop: more thinking leads to more uncertainty, which leads to more thinking…

No action means no feedback and no closure.

We recommend reading this article first, before you jump to our quick-fix solution.

Solution

The therapeutic solution lies in behavioural experimentation, a core method in cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT).

According to Bennett-Levy et al. (2004), deliberately engaging in small, uncertain actions generates prediction error: a mismatch between feared outcomes and reality.³

How prediction errors shape perception, attention, and motivation

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Prediction errors (PE) are a central notion in theoretical models of reinforcement learning, perceptual inference, decision-making and cognition, and prediction error signals have been reported across a wide range of brain regions and experimental paradigms.

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This disrupts the loop and forces the brain to update its beliefs about uncertainty and danger.

By documenting your fear, the action you took, and the real result, you externalise the experience and create retrievable proof that uncertainty is survivable.

This reduces the brain’s need to over-simulate, gradually building cognitive tolerance for ambiguity. That signal forces your brain to update its threat model.

When you notice the loop, give yourself five minutes to act.

Then, write down three things:

• Your fear,

• The action you took,

• And the real outcome.

This builds real evidence that uncertainty isn’t danger. Over time, it retrains your brain to tolerate the unknown, and that’s when the overthinking ends.

Practice daily for 30-60 days to permanently get rid of overthinking.

1. Ladouceur R, Gosselin P, Dugas MJ. Experimental manipulation of intolerance of uncertainty: A study of a theoretical model of worry. Behaviour Research and Therapy. 2000;38(9):933‑941. doi:10.1016/S0005‑7967(99)00133‑3.

2. Carleton RN. Into the unknown: A review and synthesis of contemporary models involving uncertainty. Journal of Anxiety Disorders. 2016;39:30‑43. doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2016.02.007.

3. Bennett-Levy, J., Butler, G., Fennell, M., Hackman, A., Mueller, M., & Westbrook, D. (Eds.). (2004). Oxford guide to behavioural experiments in cognitive therapy. Oxford University Press.